We have a number of ongoing research studies at the Center on Terrorism.
As colleagues embark on new projects, we will include them in this section of the web site.

Current Research

Modeling of Adversary Attitudes and Behaviors
Scott Atran, Principal Investigator

Models of individual and group based choices have tended to assume that theories of bounded rationality can explain choices to commit oneself or one's group alternatively to collaborative or competitive choices. Such assumptions are prevalent in risk modelling and assessment by foreign aid and international development agencies run by institutions such as the World Bank and many NGO's, and by U.S. diplomatic, military and intelligence services as well. However, our research team has found that when identity relevant sacred values (SVs) are threatened or violated by another group, decisions to adopt cooperative/diplomatic versus competitive/violent strategies tend to be driven by moral intuitions (Greene et al, 2001; Haidt, 2001) rather than deliberative consequentialist judgments (Atran 2006a,b, Atran et al, 2007; Ginges et al, 2007; Ginges & Atran, 2007). Sacred values differ from instrumental values by incorporating moral (including religious) beliefs that may drive action independently of, or out of all proportion to, its prospects of success (Varshney, 2003; cf. Schelling, 1963). Sacred values are social or cultural in nature where a "moral community" declares some set of values to be immune from material trade-offs (Tetlock 2003; Ginges et al, 2007). Many cross-cultural collaborations implicitly or explicitly Pioneers in cultural psychology sought to characterize cultural differences in terms of a small number of relevant dimensions (e.g., individualism versus collectivism, uncertainty avoidance, power distance, see Hofstede 1987, Hiu & Traindis 1986, Triandis 1990). A complementary view aims not at establishing some true definition of culture in terms of a set of dimensions but rather at understanding the factors, underlying causes and dynamics that lead to agreement patterns (e.g., social norms) within a society. This view aims to explain how decentralized local interactions of heterogeneous individuals lead to the emergence of macroscopic societal regularities such as social norms while admitting that there are feedback mechanisms between the macro- and micro-structures. Pioneers in cultural psychology sought to characterize cultural differences in terms of a small number of relevant dimensions (e.g., individualism versus collectivism, uncertainty avoidance, power distance, see Hofstede 1987, Hiu & Traindis 1986, Triandis 1990). A complementary view aims not at establishing some true definition of culture in terms of a set of dimensions but rather at understanding the factors, underlying causes and dynamics that lead to agreement patterns (e.g., social norms) within a society. This view aims to explain how decentralized local interactions of heterogeneous individuals lead to the emergence of macroscopic societal regularities such as social norms while admitting that there are feedback mechanisms between the macro- and micro-structures. involve threats or compromises to SVs where decisions to adopt cooperative or competitive strategies are likely to follow culturally bound norms of “moral appropriateness” rather than the logic of rational consequence” (Hoffman & McCormick, 2004; cf. Rappaport, 1999, Atran & Norenzayan, 2005). The implication is that to understand, model and predict cooperative and competitive choices in cross-cultural collaborations we need to apply our emerging understanding of moral decision-making and SVs to a broader investigation of the cognitive and emotional processes involved in cross-cultural contexts. We are investigating the role of culturally bound SVs in influencing conflict and cooperation within adversarial relationships in Turkey, Israel/Palestine and Morocco. Using the cultural consensus model (CCM), a well established formal statistical approach for the collection and analysis of cultural data (Atran et al. 1999, 2002, 2004, 2005), we are examining within and across-group differences in SVs. Surveys and experiments are investigating reasoning over SVs across cultures and methods of achieving cooperative outcomes in relations implicating SVs. Such an integrated approach will allow (a) the discovery of relevant cultural patterns across and within cultures, (b) modeling of the feedback mechanism between individual cognitions and social beliefs and (c) furnishing culturally sensitive plausible patters and principles for individual behaviors and decisions in conflict resolution. Most crucially, this methodology will allow contextual and historical perspectives to be included that may shed light on the underlying dynamics and cultural changes, which could enable the discovery of ways to predict and influence behaviors of interest.

Small Group Dynamics in the Evolution of Global Network Terrorism: A Comprehensive, People-Based Approach
Scott Atran, Principal Investigator

A major problem facing a rigorous and comprehensive study of Global Network Terrorism (GNT) is lack of strong, quantitative relational data that is freely available for scientific research in academic, policy, and government communities. Lack of relational data results in theorizing and theoretical modeling often divorced from important policy questions that the U.S. and allies face in ongoing efforts to counter GNT. There is any number of software programs designed to analyze data, but few meaningful relational data to be analyzed that could generate insight into the social, ethnic, historical and ideational ties that link terrorists to one another and to actions. To wed theoretical modeling to government policy we need to first organize a comprehensive, publicly available relational database that the research community can critically scrutinize, and which is constituted in ways to stimulate, guide and test theoretical models. Such knowledge, in turn, can foster more effective intervention and prevention policies.

This research provides a rigorous and comprehensive basis for study of GNT with (1) a people-based Relational Database from open sources that can be quantitatively, lawfully assessed by the larger scientific community (2) to address terrorist organizational structure, culture and motivation in ways that foster more effective understanding and prevention. The GNT database merges cultural modeling efforts with relational data on Al-Qaeda and associates. This merging (3) allows ready integration of existing incident-based databases with rich open-source materials (e.g., court records, field interviews, survey data) in innovative ways that allow constant expansion and recalibration of network links and development (path-dependent growth).

The project integrates 3 modeling techniques: (a) social networks analysis of the relations between terrorist agents, (b) evolutionary modeling of changing structural relationships in the small group dynamics of terrorist networks, and (c) cultural consensus modeling (basically factor analysis) to assess patterns of inter-subject agreement and disagreement over commitment to radical beliefs that may motivate violent actions.